2089 Nokes Draft Grades

[mattynokes]

Let's see how far we get this year...

01. SP Justin Geraci
I have mixed feelings on him. I tend to not like the high control builds since they seem to be bit by either higher home runs or OBA. There doesn't seem to be any concerns on either of those, however it's a bit concerning to see a pretty low GB% for that control build. I think it could be that his good numbers are a product of being very advanced for an 18 year old and he'll wind up with trouble with either homers or hits allowed.

Grade:
Future Skills: 93 Con, 85 Pow, 88 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 9
Scouting File Score: 90.08

02. SP Arilio Balam
He looks awfully appealing with the high control, but I think it being so far above movement will mean problems in the future. He’s also already jumped, so his true upside is a little lower than what it suggests on draft day. He reminds of Will Burbridge. Balam has similar unappealing OBAs that Burbridge had. Balam can certainly run into some good years when it all comes together, but overall will generally be a pitcher who you keep expecting more from, but never get.

Grade:
Future Skills: 93 Con, 76 Pow, 85 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 29
Scouting File Score: 86.39

03. SP Aaron Haught
He’s got a very good build and is very young. He should progress to having a fine control-movement combo. He doesn’t look to give up many homers and that’ll be a big plus in Colorado. The only knock on him would be his power. While not the biggest issue in the Mogul world, low power does tend to hold a pitcher back from truly being dominant. It can be done (i.e. Dana Balota), but usually they fall short of Ace status.

Grade:
Future Skills: 90 Con, 66 Pow, 95 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 12
Scouting File Score: 89.19

04. SP Steve Hall
I would start off by saying his control is too far above his movement, but he’s just 16, so I think there’s enough development time to where his movement could develop above his control or (in the least) be basically a non-factor difference below his control. Erick has had some big success with these super young pitchers in the past (after I’ve blasted the pick) and beyond the potential control issue, Hall looks to have an envious profile. His vitals are all above his overall, he’ll have one dominant pitch, and all but one year of low homers. I would not be surprised to see him turn into an Ace.

Grade:
Future Skills: 94 Con, 83 Pow, 93 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 2
Scouting File Score: 94.23

05. SP Jason McVean
I really hope that mzy took the bait of me singing the praises of McVean pre-draft. He’s going to get tagged for a lot of runs and pitch no better than a mid-round SP.

Just kidding. What I said pre-draft was how I really felt about him. He certainly does have some concerns about home runs. But his worst year was just 1.25 HR/9 and the ones to worry about are usually 1.50+. As I said in Discord, I don’t think that we’ve ever seen a SP with this kind of strikeout ability to go along with solid control on draft day. His K/BB ratio is impressive (7.50 in 2089) and he’s flashed two years of sub-.200 OBAs. Not to mention, the amount of time to develop (with a 1 or 2 point b-day drop). For that, he’d be my #1 pitcher. It’s risky, but if he pans out, he could be dominant. It will be very interesting to see how his movement progresses (or if it even matters with all of his power).

Grade:
Future Skills: 87 Con, 94 Pow, 87 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 1
Scouting File Score: 94.70

06. SP Charlie Hodge
He didn’t drop a whole lot when he aged (2 or 3 points). He has some strikeout ability. Even though he’s more of a power build, his GB% is still decent. He should have a very good changeup. His endurance could mean he’ll log a ton of innings. These are all positive things that I noticed about him when scouting. His home runs are Jekyll and Hyde, but he’s just 18, so I wouldn’t be worried. The key for him will be if his control gets to a comfortable level (80+).

Grade:
Future Skills: 77 Con, 87 Pow, 90 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 10
Scouting File Score: 89.55

07. SP Mike Walsh
He's a good build that's going to have a nice control-movement combo. However, as noted earlier, aces generally have strikeout ability and Walsh will not. He'll be a pretty fine pitcher, but I doubt he'll be consistently dominant. And that's pretty much it. It's that simple with him - good pitcher, but not likely to be dominant.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 67 Pow, 91 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 22
Scouting File Score: 86.90

08. SP Brant Wright
Before the draft, I talked about someone in the 6-10 range would probably be pretty happy with a pitcher that fell to them. I think Wright is that pitcher. He looks to be one of those arms that will peak with roughly mid 80s control and power with 90+ (probably ~95) movement. It’ll also be interesting to see how quickly he develops. I’d be a little surprised if he’s not up by the time he’s 22.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 83 Pow, 98 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 5
Scouting File Score: 91.24

09. SP Ben Logan
He projects some crazy balance in his future in all 3 vitals. He’s shown some nice K:BB ratios, but has been a little hampered by the long ball. I like him and had him on my list of SP targets, but getting a deeper look, I really do question if the homers will keep him from being more than a mid-rotation arm (not that there’s anything wrong with that). He’d be a great candidate for half-star grades.

Grade:
Future Skills: 88 Con, 88 Pow, 88 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 9
Scouting File Score: 90.68

10. 1B Roger Applegarth
I feel like a broken record, but I still don’t like these builds. I feel Sean Perkins is the current epitome of these builds. Sure, they can run into some great seasons, but generally they’re more myth than legend. You think they’re going to be a consistent 30-35 HR and .850+ OPS threat and they just aren’t. With these builds, it’s all about peaking out very high (like Kevin Webster) to become the top notch bat that you hope for.

Grade:
Future Skills: 89 Con, 89 Pow, 91 Eye
Scouting File Rank: 3
Scouting File Score: 92.41

11. SP Travis Menary
This was one of those surprising, but not surprising picks – GD taking a power arm. What is surprising is that there appeared to still be some other power arms that projected better control still on the board. I’m just really not sure what Menary will do well and he has both very high endurance and health. I don’t think he should have gone as late as my scouting file projected, but I don’t think he was first round talent.

Grade:
Future Skills: 71 Con, 82 Pow, 90 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 117
Scouting File Score: 77.23

12. RP/SP Tom Moye
This is a great pick. His projections look very promising. He’s extremely young, has a fantastic GB%, has shown some very low HRs, and should develop some solid strikeout ability. My philosophy now is to wait and see on SP converts, but he’s definitely a build that could bloom into an arm well suited for the rotation.

Grade:
Future Skills: 84 Con, 70 Pow, 94 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 4
Scouting File Score: 91.74

13. SP Reagan Donillson
I think he went a little high. Even at 16, I’d be worried about the amount of homers that he’s allowed. His control is also a bit lower than you’d want to see. But still, he is just 16 and the development path for these guys can be different than a similar player at age 18 or 19.

Grade:
Future Skills: 72 Con, 87 Pow, 92 Mov
Scouting File Rank: 89
Scouting File Score: 80.34